The politics of the future circa 1934

[ffutures]

I've taken a few days off from Weinbaum to work on another games project (it's a bit early to say more) but am now now back at work on it, and have reached the bit of the Weinbaum game where I need to say something about what Earth is like circa 2100 AD. About which he unfortunately said virtually nothing.

Going by the things that were happening in Weinbaum's time (he died in 1934), I'm assuming that he would expect to see large superstates on the lines of the USA, British Empire, etc., so I've divided the world into the following main political blocs:

United Americas - Canada, Alaska, the USA, Mexico, Ecuador, and everything else north of Brazil. The USA formed economic links and military alliances to the North and South, eventually becoming a single economic community. The nations within the UA are still self-governing, to about the same extent that states were in the old USA, but all use a common currency, the dollar, and all owe their ultimate allegiance to Washington.

Brazilian Federation - Brazil responded to the rise and southward spread of the UA by forming links with other South American nations, united primarily by their distrust of the UA. In recent years the Brazilian Federation has become a little more relaxed in its dealings with the UA, and there have been joint agreements on trade which some interpret as a prelude to a final amalgamation of the Federation and UA.

Russian Empire - Russian Communism inevitably fell and the Romanovs were restored. Learning from their mistakes, the Russian Empire became a benevolent constitutional monarchy. All of the former USSR and some of the Balkan states, Poland, etc.

United States of Europe - The European empires were torn apart by the struggle against fascism of the 1940s to 60s, and most of their colonies became independent. Europe is now a loose association of states, the United States of Europe, although constant bickering makes this perhaps the least effective government on Earth. Essentially the European nations retain most of their independence, paying lip service to the United States of Europe when it suits them to combine economic or military forces.

Islamic Caliphate - Africa and the Middle East. With the decline of the European empires Africa was united by a new Mahdi. Now moderately liberal by Islamic standards.

Pacific Alliance - China, India, and everything down South including Australia and New Zealand. The Alliance was India and Australia, who allied to resist Chinese expansion in India and the Philippines. This led to the 2075 Pacific War (nuclear) and (surprisingly) the collapse of the alliance of warlords which had previously ruled China. Somehow this hugely confusing mess ended with the Australians in charge. G'day cobber...

Anyway, that's my first stab at this; anyone got any better "plausible evolution from 1934" ideas?

Here's a rough map:



Anyone got any thoughts?

Later Looking at everyone's suggestions, maybe something more like this:






• The USA formed economic links to the South, with the United Americas eventually becoming a single economic community. The nations within the UA are still self-governing, to about the same extent that states were in the old USA, but all use a common currency, the dollar, which is now also the main currency off-world, and all owe their ultimate allegiance to Washington. Canada stayed independent, and is on reasonably good terms with the United Americas, but generally considered to be a closer ally with Britain.
• Brazil responded to the rise and southward spread of the UA by forming links with other South American nations, united primarily by their distrust of the UA. In recent years the Brazilian Federation has become a little more relaxed in its dealings with the UA, and there have been joint agreements on trade which some interpret as a prelude to a final amalgamation of the Federation and UA.
• Russian Communism fell and the Romanovs were restored. Learning from their mistakes, the expanded Russian Empire became a benevolent constitutional monarchy.
• The European empires were torn apart by the struggle against Communism and Fascism from the 1940s to the late 1960s, and most of their colonies became independent. Europe is now a loose association of states, the United States of Europe, although constant bickering makes this perhaps the least effective government on Earth. Essentially the European nations retain most of their independence, paying lip service to the United States of Europe when it suits them to combine economic or military forces. Several European nations have their own colonies in space, such as the Dutch and French zones on Venus.
• The old British Empire still exists in South Africa and Rhodesia, India, and Burma, and Hong Kong, with a scattering of other possessions such as the Falklands and Gibraltar; while nominally independent Australia, Canada, and New Zealand also owe their primary allegiance to the Crown. Despite its small size, Britain packs an enormous political, economic and military punch.
• With the decline of the other European empires most of Africa was united by a new Mahdi, and is now an Islamic caliphate. There has been a general liberalization of Islam over the last century, and women are even allowed to appear unveiled, although they are still denied the vote. There are border tensions between the Caliphate and South Africa.
• The Pacific Alliance originally formed to resist Chinese expansion into Korea, Japan and the Philippines. This led to the 2075 Pacific War and (surprisingly) the collapse of the alliance of warlords which had previously ruled China. The current capital is Manila.
• Finally, China is currently an anarchic mess; dozens of rival groups contend for power, with no clear-cut leadership. Fortunately none of the current factions seem to be inclined to use atomic weapons, although it’s certain that they possess them, and recent battles have been fought mainly with rifles, artillery and flame pistols.

Comments

[whswhs.livejournal.com]

I would not be inclined to include Britain in Europe. The British Empire in that era was still very strong, and the British had a definite sense of separateness from "the continent"; in the less pleasant cases, this gave rise to sentiments such as "wogs begin at Calais." And without awareness of WWII on the horizon, there was no reason to project a fall in British power. I could see, perhaps, an Anglo-American consortium, with Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and South Africa being included, and with India and the Philippines as major colonies.

The planetary exploration theme seems to reflect the same "colonizing" mentality that gave rise to ventures into Darkest Africa. So I might be inclined to have separate European powers with their separate colonial empires, with, perhaps, one or two newly vigorous Asian states joining the race—Japan is obvious, and Turkey could have revitalized.

It doesn't really seem as if national politics is very important in Weinbaum's stories, though. Perhaps the world has moved closer toward political unity, with large parts of governmental function having devolved onto international boards and authorities?

[jordan179.livejournal.com]

The planetary exploration theme seems to reflect the same "colonizing" mentality that gave rise to ventures into Darkest Africa. So I might be inclined to have separate European powers with their separate colonial empires, with, perhaps, one or two newly vigorous Asian states joining the race—Japan is obvious, and Turkey could have revitalized.

Historically, colonialism tends to proceed in waves. It's quite possible that it became unpopular by the early 21st century just as it has in OTL, only to become popular again, later on. Remember, most of the stories are set in the 22nd century, and in the Mars stories, it's really more about exploration than colonization.

[robertprior.livejournal.com]

I'd be inclined to have, if not the British Empire, certainly an analogue to the Commonwealth.

Canada still felt ties to England back then, and was more wary of the USA.

[jordan179.livejournal.com]

You also might be guided by the Earth-based stories Weinbaum wrote which were _not_ explicitly in his "interplanetary" universe. One of the interesting technologies he had, for instance, was intercontinental passenger airliners -- but _big_ ones, more like HTA airships than what we think of as an "airliner" today. Interestingly, the real-world technology may be evolving in that direction, especially if the 21st century sees some of the plans to build very large flying wings put into effect.

[ffutures.livejournal.com]

I've been looking at those stories for background chrome, but the politics don't make a lot of sense in e.g. his stories about a transexual American dictator, a Russian - American war, etc. There do seem to be big flying liners and small autogyros etc., so the old idea of lanes of flying traffic etc. fits in quite nicely.

[pauldrye.livejournal.com]

Or you could try building a 2100 based on what seemed to be coming in 1934:

- The Pacific alliance much as is except for Australia, with the more-important difference being that it grew from a colonialist Japan.

- Russia expanding west rather than south after a short period of German/Italian/Spanish dictatorial rule on the continent.

- "White Dominions" plus the United States as the British Empire seeks a new equilibrium in the post-German/Russian War (particularly after India left and joined with Asia).

- I'd transfer Iran from Russia to the Caliphate and slice the cone of Africa off for the Amro-Brits.

This is all just in aid of roughening it up a little so there would be some surprises.

[rfmcdpei.livejournal.com]

The Pan Europa movement was active in the 1920s so something might be cobbled together about that. European-Soviet frontiers in this TL, assuming no Soviet move westrward, would correspond to the (from south to north) eastern forntiers of Romania, Czechoslovakia, Poland, the Baltic States, and Finland. Barring a Russian collapse, Ukraine and Belarus would stay Russian.

The northern half of Africa I can see as part of the Caliphate, but the southern half? It's more likely to be attached to the Amero-British alliance, IMO.

[whswhs.livejournal.com]

That's a much improved second approximation, and I think you've made very good use of everyone's advice, mine included. It looks as if what you have is nominally six and a half great powers, with China not being a power at all, and Europe only nominally so. The six real powers could have various rankings; it sounds as if you're figuring the British Empire as the dominant power, with true global reach thanks to its navy, where the others are more regional. It would be interesting to know which big power is the current ambitious rising state.

Do you envision a stable alliance structure, or has the world learned its lesson from the Great War and gone more toward balance-of-power international politics? Which great alliances are on relatively friendly or hostile terms to which others? Is there a generally recognized Bad Boy?

[ffutures.livejournal.com]

The trouble is that Weinbaum really says nothing about any of this, I'm making it up as I go along. The only real villain in any of the stories seems to be Russian or some variant thereof, but he's a drug addict, not a spy.

I'm thinking of United America as the dominant power, if anything (the dollar being the only off-world currency mentioned suggests as much), followed by Britain and its allies, with the other European nations and Russia in joint third, then the Brazilians, finally Africa, China, and the Pacific bunch trailing to the rear, with maybe Japan the technological leader there (why not; it was already happening in the 30s.)

Having said that, it's stated that Britain is very gung-ho for piracy suppression, so maybe it isn't that simple - perhaps Britain has a big share of the insurance business!

The thing is that Weinbaum's stories are much more man against nature than man against man - even in The Red Peri, the big pirate story, the way that the hero solves the problem is by a feat of strength and endurance, not by fighting someone. Makes it difficult to choose villains.

[pauldrye.livejournal.com]

Despite its small size, Britain packs an enormous political, economic and military punch

In fact, with a nuclear war not long over in China, The Empire is quite possibly the most populous of the powers (bearing in mind that Africa and SE Asia's massive demographic expansion had not happened by Weinbaum's time).

I'm having a bit of a hard time seeing how SW Africa and Bechuanaland became Muslim and not remained Brit. Still, I like the overall arrangement.

[ffutures.livejournal.com]

Nukes don't seem to be particularly huge in the Weinbaum universe - a few kilotons, maybe.

The African thing can easily be changed, but I'm trying to show a slightly smaller Empire / commonwealth. Maybe a couple of neutral states that were formerly British?

[whswhs.livejournal.com]

Looking again at the map, I notice that Madagascar looks to be part of the Pacific Alliance. Is that deliberate? If it is, I call it damned clever; it's just the kind of quirky unpredictable development that real history is full of, and gives a nice sense of verisimilitude.

It also suggests a geopolitical situation where the Pacific Alliance is an important trading nation, with an emphasis on increasing its share of the Indian Ocean trade. Madagascar might be a hotbed of black marketeering and intrigue, the place where Africans and South Africans come to make deals under the table.

Speaking of the Indian Ocean trade, does Britain still have Singapore? That would be a big issue between them and the Pacific Alliance, if so; controlling the best route between the Indian and Pacific Oceans would give Britain a very strong and very lucrative position.

Elsewhere, it looks as if Ireland is European gray. That's certainly better than its being British green! But I wonder if the Irish might have stayed out, as a small independent state. Switzerland and the Vatican also seem likely holdouts against European union, though of course the Vatican would hardly show up.

Now if you wanted to be really quirky, Ireland might have become another American state! The Irish do have a republican form of government, after all.

And what about the Caribbean? Are Jamaica and Trinidad still British? Do the Dutch and French dependencies still form part of Europe? I suppose Cuba and the Dominican Republic might be part of America, whereas Haiti might still be out on its own; if the South still has 1930s racial policies, they might not want to let Haiti in, and Haiti might not want to join. Conceivably there might be Haitian missionaries spreading voodoo and black nationalism through the South. On the other hand, both Cuba and the Dominican Republic traditionally had plantation economies, much like those of Brazil, and they might have preferred alliances with Brazil, or even staying neutral and flirting with both America and Brazil.

And I guess that's as much speculation as you could conceivably use, though I could go on quite a bit. Really. I find this sort of thing fun. . . .

[ffutures.livejournal.com]

Yes, Madagascar was deliberate - I didn't want Africa too monolithic.

I like the idea of Ireland being American - not sure that Britain would be so keen, but for RPG purposes it's a nice idea. I really don't want to go into too much detail about the smaller nations for layout reasons - I'm just about at the end of the 2nd page for the political / economic stuff and I don't want to carry over to a third size - but that'd be a fun one to put in and there's just about room. Thanks for the suggestion!