So what happens now?

[ffutures]

Re Brexit, that is.

My predictions

• Cameron does resign (already confirmed he will according to this morning's news) leaving the Conservatives running the country but in a mess.
• Renewed calls for Scottish and Welsh independence, union of N&S Ireland, etc. - already started. No doubt Cornwall will soon follow.
• Calls for London to become a separate state and remain in the EU - not a snowball's chance in hell, but it's already being talked up.
• UKIP realise they don't actually have a coherent strategy post winning, apart from most of their actual politicians wanting to dump Farage with extreme prejudice.
• The pound declines in value but probably comes up again gradually, but never fully recovers.
• A couple of years of negotiations then a slow withdrawal process over several more years before Britain actually leaves the EU.

Probably a lot I've missed here, but it's going to be an interesting and scary ride.

Comments

[curiouswombat.livejournal.com]

The Crown Dependancies of the Isle of Man and the Channel Islands have (or had...) their own relationship to the EU called Protocol 3.

This basically means we do not pay anything in to the EU, nor can we get any of the subsidies and grants etc, that the UK does. But we are allowed to trade with the EU without tariff barriers as long as we obey their regulations for goods and services.

So why would the UK leaving effect us? Because Protocol 3 says that in all negotiations/treaties etc. the Crown Dependencies will be represented by 'the UK as an EU member'.... So protocol 3 becomes void if the UK is no longer a member and we will face all sorts of barriers in anything where we come into contact with EU countries.

[ffutures.livejournal.com]

Crap. Maybe you could try for statehood like e.g. San Marino.

[curiouswombat.livejournal.com]

I reckon it would be an option - it is debated now and again in the local press. And we could stop paying the UK government to defend us* - end even stop paying the TV licence as we currently do.

*A waste of money, I have always thought - you think they would just sit back and let the Russians invade us in our geographical position?

[ffutures.livejournal.com]

Sorry - I'm trying to figure out why I was thinking of Mann as one of the Channel Islands when I wrote my comment, and failing miserably.

[curiouswombat.livejournal.com]

I reckoned it was because it had been a long and distressing night and wasn't going to mention it :)